V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 6-Month Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
28.25%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
35.09%
increased by 6.98%
1 Month
48.07%
increased by 19.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 26, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1707 | 8.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3858 | 25.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5377 | 49.56*** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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