V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
115.36%
increased by 5.21%
1 Week
124.75%
increased by 14.60%
1 Month
155.08%
increased by 44.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2013 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 7.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2423 | 25.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7486 | 108.03*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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