V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
147.90%
increased by 13.63%
1 Week
154.74%
increased by 20.47%
1 Month
178.04%
increased by 43.77%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 03:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2013 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.92* |
| αARCH | 0.2429 | 6.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7472 | 26.90*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.92* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2429 | 6.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7472 | 26.90*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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