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V-Lab

CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

104.44%

decreased by 4.61%

1 Week

110.49%

increased by 1.44%

1 Month

126.22%

increased by 17.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 256% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
20.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2135
17.69***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8106
138.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1536
-9.15***

Persistence:

0.947

Half-life:

13 days