V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
85.02%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
88.70%
increased by 4.50%
1 Month
95.35%
increased by 11.15%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 22.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2108 | 15.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7562 | 93.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1827 | -12.42*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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