iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 1-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
102.71%
decreased by 8.07%
1 Week
102.27%
decreased by 8.51%
1 Month
101.43%
decreased by 9.35%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 22.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2127 | 15.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7546 | 93.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1832 | -12.32*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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