V-Lab
CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
56.50%
increased by 3.18%
1 Week
60.04%
increased by 6.72%
1 Month
66.99%
increased by 13.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.2258 | 20.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2895 | 18.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7513 | 126.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2895 | -18.73*** |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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