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V-Lab

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

56.50%

increased by 3.18%

1 Week

60.04%

increased by 6.72%

1 Month

66.99%

increased by 13.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 17, 2006 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.2258
20.71***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2895
18.49***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7513
126.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2895
-18.73***

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days