V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
40.45%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
40.85%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Month
41.97%
increased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 26, 1995 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 228% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3995 | 20.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1428 | 15.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8556 | 150.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0992 | -8.30*** |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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