V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
75.01%
increased by 23.81%
1 Week
74.63%
increased by 23.43%
1 Month
73.60%
increased by 22.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 251% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3014 | 21.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2188 | 17.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7957 | 129.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1564 | -9.93*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
11 days
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