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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

49.32%

increased by 0.43%

1 Week

52.45%

increased by 3.56%

1 Month

60.07%

increased by 11.18%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 256% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2870
21.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2165
17.06***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7979
130.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1556
-9.95***

Persistence:

0.937

Half-life:

11 days