V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
49.32%
increased by 0.43%
1 Week
52.45%
increased by 3.56%
1 Month
60.07%
increased by 11.18%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 256% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2870 | 21.26*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2165 | 17.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7979 | 130.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1556 | -9.95*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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