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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

75.01%

increased by 23.81%

1 Week

74.63%

increased by 23.43%

1 Month

73.60%

increased by 22.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 251% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3014
21.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2188
17.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7957
129.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1564
-9.93***

Persistence:

0.936

Half-life:

11 days