V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
49.00%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
51.27%
increased by 1.23%
1 Month
58.20%
increased by 8.16%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 164% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1845 | 17.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2307 | 26.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9391 | 278.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1038 | 13.19*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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