V-Lab
CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
112.95%
decreased by 8.35%
1 Week
110.66%
decreased by 10.64%
1 Month
104.71%
decreased by 16.59%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 116% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2154 | 12.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1956 | 17.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9395 | 213.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0719 | 4.38*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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