CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
53.67%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
57.45%
increased by 3.64%
1 Month
69.46%
increased by 15.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 10, 2007 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 11-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2240 | 3.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1995 | 4.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9369 | 52.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.0729 | 1.09 |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2240 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1995 | 4.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9369 | 52.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0729 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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