V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
38.57%
increased by 1.93%
1 Week
38.74%
increased by 2.10%
1 Month
39.18%
increased by 2.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 63% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1164 | 20.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2894 | 25.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9370 | 295.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0693 | 7.07*** |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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