CBOE Gold Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
102.23%
decreased by 11.63%
1 Week
98.44%
decreased by 15.42%
1 Month
91.52%
decreased by 22.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 01:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4112 | 4.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.2711 | 4.28*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8779 | 34.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0843 | 1.62 |
0.878
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4112 | 4.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2711 | 4.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8779 | 34.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0843 | 1.62 |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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