CBOE Gold Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
95.95%
decreased by 13.52%
1 Week
93.66%
decreased by 15.81%
1 Month
89.37%
decreased by 20.10%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2008 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 92% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4105 | 19.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2746 | 17.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8782 | 141.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0864 | 6.55*** |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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