CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
104.03%
decreased by 5.18%
1 Week
102.91%
decreased by 6.30%
1 Month
99.45%
decreased by 9.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 23, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1180 | 7.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0828 | 19.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9656 | 294.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1485 | 33.44*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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