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V-Lab

Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

128.42%

decreased by 9.27%

1 Week

126.15%

decreased by 11.54%

1 Month

119.61%

decreased by 18.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 388% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1632
13.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1550
20.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9565
358.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1022
13.81***

Persistence:

0.956

Half-life:

16 days