V-Lab
Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
128.42%
decreased by 9.27%
1 Week
126.15%
decreased by 11.54%
1 Month
119.61%
decreased by 18.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 388% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1632 | 13.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1550 | 20.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9565 | 358.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1022 | 13.81*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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