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Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

137.59%

increased by 7.26%

1 Week

135.47%

increased by 5.14%

1 Month

129.03%

decreased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.10 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returnsδ = 1.10 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3491
3.09***
αARCH0.0957
5.18***
βGARCH0.8798
50.24***
γleverage-0.6272
-2.79***
δpower1.0951
8.16***

0.958

Persistence

16d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3491
3.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0957
5.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8798
50.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.6272
-2.79***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0951
8.16***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days