CBOE DJIA Volatility Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
81.79%
1 Week
85.32%
1 Month
95.72%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. The volatility power δ = 1.48 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8693 | 2.31** |
| αARCH | 0.0932 | 2.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8663 | 37.27*** |
| γleverage | -0.6117 | -1.88* |
| δpower | 1.4822 | 6.42*** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8693 | 2.31** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0932 | 2.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8663 | 37.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6117 | -1.88* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4822 | 6.42*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
Other CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices