CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
59.12%
1 Week
63.66%
1 Month
76.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 6, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 70% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.16 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4557 | 9.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1539 | 30.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8223 | 136.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2240 | -15.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1610 | 26.51*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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