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V-Lab

CBOE DJIA Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

59.12%

increased by 0.69%

1 Week

63.66%

increased by 5.23%

1 Month

76.56%

increased by 18.13%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE DJIA Volatility Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 6, 1997 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 70% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.16 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4557
9.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1539
30.99***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8223
136.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2240
-15.60***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1610
26.51***

Persistence:

0.948

Half-life:

13 days