V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
116.46%
1 Week
121.16%
1 Month
134.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 28, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 14% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3525 | 8.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2325 | 30.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7509 | 85.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0851 | -4.04*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7466 | 16.17*** |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
11 days
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