V-Lab
CBOE Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
104.83%
1 Week
98.72%
1 Month
86.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1992 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 44% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.70 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3023 | 15.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2176 | 59.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7227 | 148.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2538 | -29.55*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.6962 | 23.09*** |
Persistence:
0.896
Half-life:
6 days
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