Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

104.83%

decreased by 15.78%

1 Week

98.72%

decreased by 21.89%

1 Month

86.28%

decreased by 34.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Volatility Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1992 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 44% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.70 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3023
15.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2176
59.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7227
148.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2538
-29.55***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.6962
23.09***

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days