V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
414.86%
increased by 0.86%
1 Week
411.34%
decreased by 2.66%
1 Month
399.08%
decreased by 14.92%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 62% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0824 | 0.79 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0230 | 6.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9633 | 227.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4491 | 6.18*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.38 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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