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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

396.21%

decreased by 97.59%

1 Week

412.23%

decreased by 81.57%

1 Month

410.95%

decreased by 82.85%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2522
2.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0772
2.35**
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2522
-2.38**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.16
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0232
0.25
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9608
5.29***

Persistence:

0.203

Half-life:

0 days