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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

394.46%

decreased by 100.30%

1 Week

409.17%

decreased by 85.59%

1 Month

416.43%

decreased by 78.33%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2539
2.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0857
2.55**
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2539
-2.45**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.16
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0239
0.26
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9602
5.38***

Persistence:

0.213

Half-life:

0 days