CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
350.56%
1 Week
358.08%
1 Month
360.27%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 46 | |
| αARCH | 0.2544 | 4.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0765 | 0.91 |
| γleverage | -0.2544 | -3.65*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.84 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0237 | 1.45 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9595 | 27.89*** |
0.204
Persistence0d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2544 | 4.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0765 | 0.91 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2544 | -3.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.84 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0237 | 1.45 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9595 | 27.89*** |
Persistence:
0.204
Half-life:
0 days
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