V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
396.21%
1 Week
412.23%
1 Month
410.95%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2522 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0772 | 2.35** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2522 | -2.38** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0232 | 0.25 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9608 | 5.29*** |
Persistence:
0.203
Half-life:
0 days
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