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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

345.86%

decreased by 13.83%

1 Week

362.13%

increased by 2.44%

1 Month

360.81%

increased by 1.12%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.2429
4.01***
βGARCH0.0775
0.90
γleverage-0.2429
-3.48***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.85
λ₂forecast adj.0.0250
1.48
λ₃tau persistence0.9581
27.48***

0.199

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2429
4.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0775
0.90
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2429
-3.48***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.85
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0250
1.48
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9581
27.48***

Persistence:

0.199

Half-life:

0 days