V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
373.99%
1 Week
392.68%
1 Month
391.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2494 | 2.56** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0730 | 2.23** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2494 | -2.31** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.15 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0220 | 0.24 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9617 | 5.19*** |
Persistence:
0.198
Half-life:
0 days
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