CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
394.46%
1 Week
409.17%
1 Month
416.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2539 | 2.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0857 | 2.55** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2539 | -2.45** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0239 | 0.26 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9602 | 5.38*** |
Persistence:
0.213
Half-life:
0 days
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