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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

491.20%

increased by 120.87%

1 Week

414.95%

increased by 44.62%

1 Month

388.66%

increased by 18.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.2459
4.01***
βGARCH0.0695
0.82
γleverage-0.2459
-3.49***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.80
λ₂forecast adj.0.0223
1.37
λ₃tau persistence0.9612
27.20***

0.192

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2459
4.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0695
0.82
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2459
-3.49***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.80
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0223
1.37
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9612
27.20***

Persistence:

0.192

Half-life:

0 days