V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
26.11%
1 Week
29.38%
1 Month
35.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3609 | 43.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6946 | 98.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3010 | -18.93*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.5095 | 0.53 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0545 | 0.63 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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