Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

26.11%

increased by 0.81%

1 Week

29.38%

increased by 4.08%

1 Month

35.89%

increased by 10.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3609
43.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6946
98.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3010
-18.93***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

6.5095
0.53
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0545
0.63
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days