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CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

23.99%

increased by 0.42%

1 Week

27.76%

increased by 4.19%

1 Month

35.09%

increased by 11.52%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.3610
8.56***
βGARCH0.6965
23.70***
γleverage-0.3021
-5.10***
λ₁tau intercept6.4636
0.33
λ₂forecast adj.0.0594
0.21
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.906

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3610
8.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6965
23.70***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3021
-5.10***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

6.4636
0.33
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0594
0.21
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days