V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
23.99%
1 Week
27.76%
1 Month
35.09%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.3610 | 8.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6965 | 23.70*** |
| γleverage | -0.3021 | -5.10*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 6.4636 | 0.33 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0594 | 0.21 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3610 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6965 | 23.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3021 | -5.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.4636 | 0.33 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0594 | 0.21 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
Other CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices