V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
29.64%
1 Week
32.06%
1 Month
37.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3602 | 43.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6947 | 98.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3001 | -18.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.5423 | 0.51 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0524 | 0.60 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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