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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

29.64%

increased by 2.69%

1 Week

32.06%

increased by 5.11%

1 Month

37.08%

increased by 10.13%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3602
43.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6947
98.83***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3001
-18.81***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

6.5423
0.51
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0524
0.60
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days