V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
28.71%
1 Week
31.34%
1 Month
36.73%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.3608 | 8.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6956 | 23.59*** |
| γleverage | -0.3014 | -5.09*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 6.4897 | 0.31 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0566 | 0.19 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3608 | 8.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6956 | 23.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3014 | -5.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.4897 | 0.31 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0566 | 0.19 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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