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CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

35.14%

decreased by 3.86%

1 Week

36.36%

decreased by 2.64%

1 Month

39.22%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.3624
8.57***
βGARCH0.6972
23.84***
γleverage-0.3033
-5.13***
λ₁tau intercept6.4742
0.34
λ₂forecast adj.0.0619
0.22
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.908

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3624
8.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6972
23.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3033
-5.13***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

6.4742
0.34
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0619
0.22
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.908

Half-life:

7 days