V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.74%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
27.22%
increased by 2.10%
1 Month
33.19%
increased by 8.07%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 199% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2014 | 21.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3410 | 16.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8885 | 184.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1700 | 10.15*** |
Persistence:
0.889
Half-life:
6 days
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