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V-Lab

CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

26.59%

increased by 0.78%

1 Week

29.82%

increased by 4.01%

1 Month

36.10%

increased by 10.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE S&P 500 One-Year Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6565
30.02***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3592
11.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6978
100.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2992
-8.64***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days