CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
93.92%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
98.59%
increased by 4.58%
1 Month
108.73%
increased by 14.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.1509 | 1.14 |
| βGARCH | 0.8372 | 12.09*** |
| γleverage | -0.1509 | -1.11 |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1509 | 1.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8372 | 12.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1509 | -1.11 |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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