V-Lab
CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
107.73%
decreased by 3.37%
1 Week
109.84%
decreased by 1.26%
1 Month
114.63%
increased by 3.53%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.1495 | 1.13 |
| βGARCH | 0.8383 | 12.09*** |
| γleverage | -0.1495 | -1.10 |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1495 | 1.13 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8383 | 12.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1495 | -1.10 |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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