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CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

83.97%

decreased by 4.04%

1 Week

93.62%

increased by 5.61%

1 Month

110.64%

increased by 22.63%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 2.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst61.5267
1.00
αARCH0.1096
2.92***
βGARCH0.8864
7.49***
νDF2.5955
2.78***

0.886

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

61.5267
1.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1096
2.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8864
7.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5955
2.78***

Persistence:

0.886

Half-life:

6 days