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CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

100.05%

increased by 1.41%

1 Week

105.63%

increased by 6.99%

1 Month

115.98%

increased by 17.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

61.7115
4.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1090
11.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8837
29.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5960
10.89***

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days