CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
84.55%
decreased by 2.87%
1 Week
94.23%
increased by 6.81%
1 Month
110.94%
increased by 23.52%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 61.0994 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 11.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8819 | 29.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6075 | 10.61*** |
Persistence:
0.882
Half-life:
6 days
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