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CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

80.10%

decreased by 1.65%

1 Week

91.01%

increased by 9.26%

1 Month

109.61%

increased by 27.86%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

61.1974
4.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1090
11.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8835
29.61***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6047
10.75***

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days