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CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

84.55%

decreased by 2.87%

1 Week

94.23%

increased by 6.81%

1 Month

110.94%

increased by 23.52%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

61.0994
4.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1086
11.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8819
29.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6075
10.61***

Persistence:

0.882

Half-life:

6 days