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CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

125.27%

decreased by 9.22%

1 Week

125.00%

decreased by 9.49%

1 Month

124.45%

decreased by 10.04%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 2.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst60.9446
1.00
αARCH0.1089
2.91***
βGARCH0.8870
7.53***
νDF2.6023
2.74***

0.887

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

60.9446
1.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1089
2.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8870
7.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6023
2.74***

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days