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CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

92.27%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

99.23%

increased by 6.57%

1 Month

112.04%

increased by 19.38%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 2.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run60.1363
1.03
αscore0.1112
2.99***
βpersistence0.8865
7.73***
νDF2.6227
2.75***

0.887

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

60.1363
1.03
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1112
2.99***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8865
7.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6227
2.75***

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days