CBOE Amazon Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
92.27%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
99.23%
increased by 6.57%
1 Month
112.04%
increased by 19.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 2.62 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 60.1363 | 1.03 |
| αscore | 0.1112 | 2.99*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8865 | 7.73*** |
| νDF | 2.6227 | 2.75*** |
0.887
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 60.1363 | 1.03 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1112 | 2.99*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8865 | 7.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6227 | 2.75*** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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