CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
127.44%
decreased by 5.67%
1 Week
120.16%
decreased by 12.95%
1 Month
103.07%
decreased by 30.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 26.9532 | 2.56** |
| αscore | 0.1084 | 3.96*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8943 | 20.16*** |
| νDF | 4.1211 | 1.50 |
0.894
Persistence6d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 26.9532 | 2.56** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1084 | 3.96*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8943 | 20.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1211 | 1.50 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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