CBOE Brazil ETF Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
76.31%
decreased by 3.23%
1 Week
77.37%
decreased by 2.17%
1 Month
79.68%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 4.03 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 26.7917 | 2.36** |
| αARCH | 0.1018 | 3.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9033 | 20.29*** |
| νDF | 4.0297 | 1.51 |
0.903
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 26.7917 | 2.36** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1018 | 3.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9033 | 20.29*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0297 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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