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V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

58.46%

increased by 3.51%

1 Week

59.50%

increased by 4.55%

1 Month

62.58%

increased by 7.63%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.5656
7.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0922
21.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9575
173.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4559
7.35***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days