V-Lab
iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
58.46%
increased by 3.51%
1 Week
59.50%
increased by 4.55%
1 Month
62.58%
increased by 7.63%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 11:39 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 5, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.46 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.5656 | 7.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0922 | 21.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9575 | 173.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4559 | 7.35*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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