Skip to main content
V-Lab

iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

59.44%

increased by 10.99%

1 Week

60.41%

increased by 11.96%

1 Month

63.28%

increased by 14.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iTraxx/CBOE Europe Main 6-Month Volatility Index (BP Volatility) GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 5, 2012 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

19.6230
7.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0936
21.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9568
173.84***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4728
7.39***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days