V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
207.14%
decreased by 22.94%
1 Week
202.26%
decreased by 27.82%
1 Month
188.04%
decreased by 42.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.83 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 3.83 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 97.3368 | 2.18** |
| αARCH | 0.1266 | 6.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9425 | 39.03*** |
| νDF | 3.8302 | 3.22*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 97.3368 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1266 | 6.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9425 | 39.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8302 | 3.22*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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