V-Lab
CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
135.00%
increased by 13.76%
1 Week
137.50%
increased by 16.26%
1 Month
144.26%
increased by 23.02%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2008 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.82 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-lifev = 3.82 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 97.5313 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.1265 | 6.94*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9432 | 38.90*** |
| νDF | 3.8156 | 3.24*** |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 97.5313 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1265 | 6.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9432 | 38.90*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.8156 | 3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
Other CBOE EFA ETF Volatility Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Volatility Indices