CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
376.28%
decreased by 3.71%
1 Week
376.47%
decreased by 3.52%
1 Month
377.16%
decreased by 2.83%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 6.23 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 584.2229 | 0.97 |
| αscore | 0.0189 | 1.19 |
| βpersistence | 0.9874 | 31.48*** |
| νDF | 6.2295 | 0.24 |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 584.2229 | 0.97 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0189 | 1.19 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 31.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2295 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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