V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
391.04%
1 Week
390.89%
1 Month
390.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 02:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 383.5597 | 1.87* |
| αARCH | 0.0162 | 2.18** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 47.36*** |
| νDF | 6.0842 | 0.40 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 383.5597 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0162 | 2.18** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 47.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0842 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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