V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
402.35%
decreased by 4.81%
1 Week
402.19%
decreased by 4.97%
1 Month
401.55%
decreased by 5.61%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 386.6015 | 7.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0160 | 8.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 194.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0404 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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