Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

376.28%

decreased by 3.71%

1 Week

376.47%

decreased by 3.52%

1 Month

377.16%

decreased by 2.83%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 6.23 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run584.2229
0.97
αscore0.0189
1.19
βpersistence0.9874
31.48***
νDF6.2295
0.24

0.987

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

584.2229
0.97
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0189
1.19
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9874
31.48***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2295
0.24

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

55 days