V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
353.45%
increased by 3.93%
1 Week
354.15%
increased by 4.63%
1 Month
356.71%
increased by 7.19%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 6.32 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 575.6070 | 0.99 |
| αARCH | 0.0194 | 1.20 |
| βGARCH | 0.9876 | 32.13*** |
| νDF | 6.3166 | 0.24 |
0.988
Persistence55d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 575.6070 | 0.99 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0194 | 1.20 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9876 | 32.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3166 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
55 days
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