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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

353.45%

increased by 3.93%

1 Week

354.15%

increased by 4.63%

1 Month

356.71%

increased by 7.19%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 11:33 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.32 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 55-day half-lifev = 6.32 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst575.6070
0.99
αARCH0.0194
1.20
βGARCH0.9876
32.13***
νDF6.3166
0.24

0.988

Persistence

55d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

575.6070
0.99
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0194
1.20
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9876
32.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3166
0.24

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

55 days