CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
441.78%
increased by 4.27%
1 Week
441.56%
increased by 4.05%
1 Month
440.69%
increased by 3.18%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 391.4532 | 7.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0158 | 8.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 215.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.7010 | 2.07** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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