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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

391.04%

decreased by 4.10%

1 Week

390.89%

decreased by 4.25%

1 Month

390.32%

decreased by 4.82%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 02:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 6.08 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst383.5597
1.87*
αARCH0.0162
2.18**
βGARCH0.9990
47.36***
νDF6.0842
0.40

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

383.5597
1.87*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0162
2.18**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
47.36***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0842
0.40

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days