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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026

1 Day

441.78%

increased by 4.27%

1 Week

441.56%

increased by 4.05%

1 Month

440.69%

increased by 3.18%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.70 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

391.4532
7.39***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0158
8.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
215.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.7010
2.07**

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days