V-Lab
CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
410.25%
decreased by 2.23%
1 Week
410.26%
decreased by 2.22%
1 Month
410.33%
decreased by 2.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 13, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0110 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9816 | 426.04*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
Other CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index Analyses
Other GARCH Analyses on Volatility Indices