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V-Lab

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

410.25%

decreased by 2.23%

1 Week

410.26%

decreased by 2.22%

1 Month

410.33%

decreased by 2.15%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:32 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 13, 2022 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
5.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0110
7.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9816
426.04***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days