Skip to main content
V-Lab

TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

101.48%

decreased by 8.94%

1 Week

100.91%

decreased by 9.51%

1 Month

99.30%

decreased by 11.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of TLT Percentage Price Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1620
15.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1479
21.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7933
80.50***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days