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CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

185.30%

decreased by 1.99%

1 Week

186.35%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Month

189.76%

increased by 2.47%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 03:12 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
3.19***
αARCH0.0369
3.95***
βGARCH0.9322
57.91***

0.969

Persistence

22d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.19***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0369
3.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9322
57.91***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days