V-Lab
CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
184.61%
decreased by 2.96%
1 Week
185.71%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Month
189.28%
increased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.19*** |
| αARCH | 0.0369 | 3.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9323 | 57.95*** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0369 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9323 | 57.95*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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