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CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

67.85%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

75.79%

increased by 7.56%

1 Month

88.56%

increased by 20.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
5.20***
αARCH0.1649
6.93***
βGARCH0.7028
17.06***

0.868

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
5.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1649
6.93***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7028
17.06***

Persistence:

0.868

Half-life:

5 days