CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
67.85%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
75.79%
increased by 7.56%
1 Month
88.56%
increased by 20.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 5.20*** |
| αARCH | 0.1649 | 6.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7028 | 17.06*** |
0.868
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1649 | 6.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7028 | 17.06*** |
Persistence:
0.868
Half-life:
5 days
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