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CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

79.35%

decreased by 5.37%

1 Week

83.84%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Month

92.63%

increased by 7.91%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.40 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

40.2869
11.30***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1528
19.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8944
89.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4001
8.12***

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days