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CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

69.89%

decreased by 7.13%

1 Week

76.62%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

89.19%

increased by 12.17%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2011 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 4.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst39.9433
2.85***
αARCH0.1521
4.88***
βGARCH0.8943
22.47***
νDF4.4094
2.02**

0.894

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

39.9433
2.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1521
4.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8943
22.47***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4094
2.02**

Persistence:

0.894

Half-life:

6 days