V-Lab
CBOE Goldman Sachs Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
86.37%
decreased by 11.96%
1 Week
89.23%
decreased by 9.10%
1 Month
95.02%
decreased by 3.31%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 40.1123 | 11.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1521 | 19.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8945 | 89.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4060 | 8.09*** |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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