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ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

34.77%

increased by 6.66%

1 Week

35.08%

increased by 6.97%

1 Month

36.10%

increased by 7.99%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 4.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run6.5138
1.23
αscore0.1208
7.31***
βpersistence0.9742
47.69***
νDF4.1963
2.94***

0.974

Persistence

27d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

6.5138
1.23
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1208
7.31***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9742
47.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1963
2.94***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

27 days