V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.70%
increased by 2.96%
1 Week
39.73%
increased by 2.99%
1 Month
39.84%
increased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.4566 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1183 | 28.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9740 | 175.36*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9513 | 12.59*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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