ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
34.77%
increased by 6.66%
1 Week
35.08%
increased by 6.97%
1 Month
36.10%
increased by 7.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 4.20 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 6.5138 | 1.23 |
| αscore | 0.1208 | 7.31*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9742 | 47.69*** |
| νDF | 4.1963 | 2.94*** |
0.974
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 6.5138 | 1.23 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1208 | 7.31*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9742 | 47.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1963 | 2.94*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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