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V-Lab

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

32.60%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Week

33.35%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

35.57%

increased by 1.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.44) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2368
17.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1540
27.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8067
128.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4434
-6.38***

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days