V-Lab
ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
32.60%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
33.35%
decreased by 0.52%
1 Month
35.57%
increased by 1.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 26, 2008 to Jul 2, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.44) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2368 | 17.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1540 | 27.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8067 | 128.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4434 | -6.38*** |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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