V-Lab
CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
94.41%
decreased by 4.28%
1 Week
93.10%
decreased by 5.59%
1 Month
90.82%
decreased by 7.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -5.19) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0204 | 3.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0971 | 8.20*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7556 | 44.07*** |
| γleverage | -5.1945 | -6.73*** |
0.853
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0204 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0971 | 8.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7556 | 44.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -5.1945 | -6.73*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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