CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
73.76%
decreased by 3.59%
1 Week
77.95%
increased by 0.60%
1 Month
84.60%
increased by 7.25%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -5.21) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0108 | 3.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0970 | 8.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7555 | 44.09*** |
| γleverage | -5.2105 | -6.75*** |
0.853
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0108 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0970 | 8.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7555 | 44.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -5.2105 | -6.75*** |
Persistence:
0.853
Half-life:
4 days
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