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CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

73.76%

decreased by 3.59%

1 Week

77.95%

increased by 0.60%

1 Month

84.60%

increased by 7.25%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -5.21) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0108
3.79***
αARCH0.0970
8.21***
βGARCH0.7555
44.09***
γleverage-5.2105
-6.75***

0.853

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0108
3.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0970
8.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7555
44.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-5.2105
-6.75***

Persistence:

0.853

Half-life:

4 days