Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
25.85%
decreased by 1.74%
1 Week
29.23%
increased by 1.64%
1 Month
36.87%
increased by 9.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.57) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4846 | 26.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2213 | 28.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7171 | 102.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5670 | -13.58*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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