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V-Lab

Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

25.85%

decreased by 1.74%

1 Week

29.23%

increased by 1.64%

1 Month

36.87%

increased by 9.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 29, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.57) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4846
26.97***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2213
28.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7171
102.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5670
-13.58***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days