V-Lab
Deutsche Bank FX Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.58%
increased by 17.33%
1 Week
42.28%
increased by 18.03%
1 Month
44.12%
increased by 19.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 29, 2001 to Apr 4, 2025Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 112% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5517 | 31.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3085 | 21.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7108 | 104.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1631 | -8.49*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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