V-Lab
SMI Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
68.19%
decreased by 1.97%
1 Week
70.82%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
76.57%
increased by 6.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.4414 | 6.13*** |
| αARCH | 0.1830 | 6.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8124 | 43.79*** |
| γleverage | -0.1695 | -5.16*** |
0.911
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4414 | 6.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1830 | 6.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8124 | 43.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1695 | -5.16*** |
Persistence:
0.911
Half-life:
7 days
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