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V-Lab

SMI Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

65.85%

decreased by 1.74%

1 Week

69.03%

increased by 1.44%

1 Month

75.83%

increased by 8.24%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of SMI Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to May 13, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4852
24.37***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1835
24.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8110
172.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1698
-20.55***

Persistence:

0.910

Half-life:

7 days