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SMI Volatility Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

68.19%

decreased by 1.97%

1 Week

70.82%

increased by 0.66%

1 Month

76.57%

increased by 6.41%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of SMI Volatility Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.4414
6.13***
αARCH0.1830
6.04***
βGARCH0.8124
43.79***
γleverage-0.1695
-5.16***

0.911

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4414
6.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1830
6.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8124
43.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1695
-5.16***

Persistence:

0.911

Half-life:

7 days