SMI Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
69.37%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
70.32%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
71.87%
increased by 1.42%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8686 | 15.00*** |
| αARCH | 0.1460 | 7.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7015 | 19.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0043 | 2.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.0118 | -4.19*** |
0.848
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8686 | 15.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1460 | 7.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7015 | 19.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0043 | 2.94*** |
| γ2 | -0.0118 | -4.19*** |
Persistence:
0.848
Half-life:
4 days
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