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V-Lab

SMI Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

69.37%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

70.32%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Month

71.87%

increased by 1.42%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 09:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SMI Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8686
15.00***
αARCH0.1460
7.55***
βGARCH0.7015
19.82***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0043
2.94***
γ2-0.0118
-4.19***

0.848

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8686
15.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1460
7.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7015
19.82***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0043
2.94***
γ2-0.0118
-4.19***

Persistence:

0.848

Half-life:

4 days