Skip to main content
V-Lab

SMI Volatility Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

76.19%

increased by 11.36%

1 Week

76.55%

increased by 11.72%

1 Month

77.16%

increased by 12.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SMI Volatility Index SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 1999 to May 13, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8667
14.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1462
7.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7040
20.03***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0043
2.82***
γ2-0.0114
-3.78***

Persistence:

0.850

Half-life:

4 days