V-Lab
CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
95.38%
decreased by 6.65%
1 Week
101.90%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
109.02%
increased by 6.99%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7534 | 5.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1880 | 4.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5815 | 8.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1303 | -0.80 |
| γ2 | 0.1621 | 0.65 |
| γ3 | -0.0153 | -0.09 |
| γ4 | -0.0683 | -0.46 |
| γ5 | 0.1508 | 1.00 |
| γ6 | -0.3492 | -2.11** |
| γ7 | 0.6184 | 3.51*** |
| γ8 | -0.7522 | -2.31** |
Persistence:
0.770
Half-life:
3 days
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