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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

114.99%

increased by 10.82%

1 Week

117.43%

increased by 13.26%

1 Month

122.56%

increased by 18.39%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6144
11.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1260
28.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8025
96.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.0000
-104.24***
δ

power

Transformation power

0.8328
21.84***

Persistence:

0.892

Half-life:

6 days