V-Lab
CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
114.99%
increased by 10.82%
1 Week
117.43%
increased by 13.26%
1 Month
122.56%
increased by 18.39%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6144 | 11.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1260 | 28.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8025 | 96.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -104.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8328 | 21.84*** |
Persistence:
0.892
Half-life:
6 days
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