CBOE VIX Indicative Ask Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
147.87%
1 Week
140.10%
1 Month
128.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 11:40 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 51 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2944 | 35.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6672 | 57.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2944 | -29.85*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3976 | 0.65 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0041 | 1.10 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9889 | 70.47*** |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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