V-Lab
CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
114.70%
1 Week
116.70%
1 Month
120.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2454 | 36.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7324 | 53.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2454 | -28.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2902 | 0.81 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0038 | 1.22 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9913 | 111.66*** |
Persistence:
0.855
Half-life:
4 days
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