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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

114.70%

increased by 12.47%

1 Week

116.70%

increased by 14.47%

1 Month

120.26%

increased by 18.03%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2454
36.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7324
53.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2454
-28.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2902
0.81
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0038
1.22
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9913
111.66***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days