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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

146.17%

increased by 30.59%

1 Week

140.60%

increased by 25.02%

1 Month

130.55%

increased by 14.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2445
36.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7330
52.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2445
-28.07***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2922
0.81
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0038
1.22
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9913
111.03***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days