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CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

105.89%

decreased by 4.18%

1 Week

110.09%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

116.82%

increased by 6.75%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.2456
8.30***
βGARCH0.7325
18.59***
γleverage-0.2456
-6.39***
λ₁tau intercept0.2882
0.41
λ₂forecast adj.0.0038
0.75
λ₃tau persistence0.9914
60.04***

0.855

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2456
8.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7325
18.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2456
-6.39***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2882
0.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0038
0.75
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9914
60.04***

Persistence:

0.855

Half-life:

4 days