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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

92.67%

decreased by 2.43%

1 Week

98.83%

increased by 3.73%

1 Month

108.47%

increased by 13.37%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2371
36.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7331
49.59***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2371
-26.19***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.02
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999
797.41***

Persistence:

0.852

Half-life:

4 days