CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
92.67%
1 Week
98.83%
1 Month
108.47%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2371 | 36.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7331 | 49.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2371 | -26.19*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 797.41*** |
Persistence:
0.852
Half-life:
4 days
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