CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
118.97%
decreased by 7.09%
1 Week
117.89%
decreased by 8.17%
1 Month
115.18%
decreased by 10.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2766 | 0.90 |
| αARCH | 0.0427 | 1.58 |
| βGARCH | 0.9289 | 18.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.2370 | 8.49*** |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2766 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 1.58 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9289 | 18.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2370 | 8.49*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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