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CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

118.97%

decreased by 7.09%

1 Week

117.89%

decreased by 8.17%

1 Month

115.18%

decreased by 10.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2766
0.90
αARCH0.0427
1.58
βGARCH0.9289
18.40***
γleverage0.2370
8.49***

0.929

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2766
0.90
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0427
1.58
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9289
18.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2370
8.49***

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days