CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
93.91%
decreased by 8.64%
1 Week
96.09%
decreased by 6.46%
1 Month
101.98%
decreased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2782 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0427 | 6.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9286 | 72.47*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2373 | 33.83*** |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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