CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
94.95%
decreased by 2.69%
1 Week
103.11%
increased by 5.47%
1 Month
116.35%
increased by 18.71%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -8.34) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1301 | 3.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1070 | 38.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7562 | 174.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -8.3424 | -34.76*** |
Persistence:
0.863
Half-life:
5 days
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