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V-Lab

CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

94.95%

decreased by 2.69%

1 Week

103.11%

increased by 5.47%

1 Month

116.35%

increased by 18.71%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -8.34) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1301
3.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1070
38.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7562
174.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-8.3424
-34.76***

Persistence:

0.863

Half-life:

5 days