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CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

120.01%

increased by 14.21%

1 Week

121.29%

increased by 15.49%

1 Month

123.42%

increased by 17.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst61.8986
3.70***
αARCH0.1454
3.96***
βGARCH0.8499
19.69***
νDF4.6627
1.54

0.850

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

61.8986
3.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1454
3.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8499
19.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6627
1.54

Persistence:

0.850

Half-life:

4 days