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CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026

1 Day

136.74%

decreased by 3.97%

1 Week

133.74%

decreased by 6.97%

1 Month

128.55%

decreased by 12.16%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:47 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/20/2024

to

10/20/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.67 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run61.7712
3.71***
αscore0.1448
3.94***
βpersistence0.8494
19.71***
νDF4.6669
1.54

0.849

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

61.7712
3.71***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1448
3.94***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8494
19.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6669
1.54

Persistence:

0.849

Half-life:

4 days