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CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

99.39%

decreased by 8.80%

1 Week

106.54%

decreased by 1.65%

1 Month

117.58%

increased by 9.39%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.68 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst61.7935
3.72***
αARCH0.1450
3.96***
βGARCH0.8498
19.79***
νDF4.6777
1.54

0.850

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

61.7935
3.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1450
3.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8498
19.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6777
1.54

Persistence:

0.850

Half-life:

4 days