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CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

112.44%

increased by 1.53%

1 Week

115.82%

increased by 4.91%

1 Month

121.34%

increased by 10.43%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

62.1162
14.57***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1458
15.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8511
77.96***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6447
6.21***

Persistence:

0.851

Half-life:

4 days