V-Lab
CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
146.76%
increased by 24.17%
1 Week
141.54%
increased by 18.95%
1 Month
132.24%
increased by 9.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 62.2146 | 14.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1461 | 15.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8509 | 78.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6502 | 6.21*** |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
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