CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
112.44%
increased by 1.53%
1 Week
115.82%
increased by 4.91%
1 Month
121.34%
increased by 10.43%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 01:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 62.1162 | 14.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1458 | 15.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8511 | 77.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6447 | 6.21*** |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
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