V-Lab
CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
120.01%
increased by 14.21%
1 Week
121.29%
increased by 15.49%
1 Month
123.42%
increased by 17.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 61.8986 | 3.70*** |
| αARCH | 0.1454 | 3.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8499 | 19.69*** |
| νDF | 4.6627 | 1.54 |
0.850
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 61.8986 | 3.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1454 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8499 | 19.69*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6627 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
Other CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Volatility Indices