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CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

146.76%

increased by 24.17%

1 Week

141.54%

increased by 18.95%

1 Month

132.24%

increased by 9.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:36 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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graph of CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 18, 2009 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

62.2146
14.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1461
15.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8509
78.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.6502
6.21***

Persistence:

0.851

Half-life:

4 days