V-Lab
CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
123.18%
increased by 9.66%
1 Week
123.67%
increased by 10.15%
1 Month
124.49%
increased by 10.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.64 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 62.0710 | 14.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1455 | 15.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8507 | 78.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6431 | 6.21*** |
Persistence:
0.851
Half-life:
4 days
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