CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
136.74%
decreased by 3.97%
1 Week
133.74%
decreased by 6.97%
1 Month
128.55%
decreased by 12.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 01:47 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.67 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 61.7712 | 3.71*** |
| αscore | 0.1448 | 3.94*** |
| βpersistence | 0.8494 | 19.71*** |
| νDF | 4.6669 | 1.54 |
0.849
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 61.7712 | 3.71*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1448 | 3.94*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8494 | 19.71*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6669 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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