V-Lab
CBOE VIX Indicative Bid Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
99.39%
decreased by 8.80%
1 Week
106.54%
decreased by 1.65%
1 Month
117.58%
increased by 9.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:34 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.68 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 4.68 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 61.7935 | 3.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.1450 | 3.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8498 | 19.79*** |
| νDF | 4.6777 | 1.54 |
0.850
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 61.7935 | 3.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1450 | 3.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8498 | 19.79*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6777 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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