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DAX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026

1 Day

81.53%

increased by 3.57%

1 Week

81.99%

increased by 4.03%

1 Month

83.52%

increased by 5.56%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DAX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Aug 27, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 5.10 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst32.2184
2.08**
αARCH0.0714
7.46***
βGARCH0.9739
70.65***
νDF5.1005
1.84*

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.2184
2.08**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0714
7.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9739
70.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1005
1.84*

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days