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DAX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

107.88%

increased by 1.18%

1 Week

107.05%

increased by 0.35%

1 Month

104.22%

decreased by 2.48%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DAX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 5.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst32.3760
2.10**
αARCH0.0718
7.45***
βGARCH0.9738
71.05***
νDF5.1236
1.84*

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

32.3760
2.10**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0718
7.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9738
71.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1236
1.84*

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days