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DAX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

87.21%

decreased by 5.10%

1 Week

87.37%

decreased by 4.94%

1 Month

87.92%

decreased by 4.39%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of DAX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1992 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 5.13 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run32.3833
2.10**
αscore0.0717
7.47***
βpersistence0.9739
71.39***
νDF5.1303
1.84*

0.974

Persistence

26d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

32.3833
2.10**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0717
7.47***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9739
71.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.1303
1.84*

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days