V-Lab
DAX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
107.88%
increased by 1.18%
1 Week
107.05%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
104.22%
decreased by 2.48%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 26 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 26 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 26-day half-lifev = 5.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 32.3760 | 2.10** |
| αARCH | 0.0718 | 7.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9738 | 71.05*** |
| νDF | 5.1236 | 1.84* |
0.974
Persistence26d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.3760 | 2.10** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0718 | 7.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9738 | 71.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1236 | 1.84* |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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