DAX Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
106.14%
increased by 14.61%
1 Week
105.40%
increased by 13.87%
1 Month
102.86%
increased by 11.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1992 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 32.3300 | 8.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0716 | 29.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9743 | 284.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.1180 | 7.35*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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