V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
115.79%
increased by 4.78%
1 Week
115.91%
increased by 4.90%
1 Month
116.14%
increased by 5.13%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 53.7150 | 12.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1507 | 18.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8764 | 93.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4249 | 7.49*** |
Persistence:
0.876
Half-life:
5 days
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