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CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

107.06%

increased by 6.42%

1 Week

109.05%

increased by 8.41%

1 Month

112.78%

increased by 12.14%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 4.44 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst53.3127
3.18***
αARCH0.1499
4.64***
βGARCH0.8769
23.65***
νDF4.4432
1.86*

0.877

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

53.3127
3.18***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1499
4.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8769
23.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4432
1.86*

Persistence:

0.877

Half-life:

5 days