V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
107.06%
increased by 6.42%
1 Week
109.05%
increased by 8.41%
1 Month
112.78%
increased by 12.14%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 03:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 4.44 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 53.3127 | 3.18*** |
| αARCH | 0.1499 | 4.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8769 | 23.65*** |
| νDF | 4.4432 | 1.86* |
0.877
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 53.3127 | 3.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1499 | 4.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8769 | 23.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4432 | 1.86* |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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