Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

85.02%

increased by 0.92%

1 Week

92.66%

increased by 8.56%

1 Month

105.85%

increased by 21.75%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

53.4368
12.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1496
18.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8770
94.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4366
7.44***

Persistence:

0.877

Half-life:

5 days