V-Lab
CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
85.02%
increased by 0.92%
1 Week
92.66%
increased by 8.56%
1 Month
105.85%
increased by 21.75%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 11:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 53.4368 | 12.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1496 | 18.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8770 | 94.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4366 | 7.44*** |
Persistence:
0.877
Half-life:
5 days
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