CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
100.65%
decreased by 12.69%
1 Week
104.19%
decreased by 9.15%
1 Month
110.79%
decreased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 53.6682 | 12.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1494 | 18.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8794 | 95.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.4419 | 7.46*** |
Persistence:
0.879
Half-life:
5 days
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