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CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026

1 Day

115.79%

increased by 4.78%

1 Week

115.91%

increased by 4.90%

1 Month

116.14%

increased by 5.13%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 11:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.42 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

53.7150
12.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1507
18.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8764
93.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4249
7.49***

Persistence:

0.876

Half-life:

5 days