Skip to main content
V-Lab

CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

100.65%

decreased by 12.69%

1 Week

104.19%

decreased by 9.15%

1 Month

110.79%

decreased by 2.55%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 12:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of CBOE Emerging Market Markets Volatility Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 16, 2011 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

53.6682
12.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1494
18.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8794
95.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.4419
7.46***

Persistence:

0.879

Half-life:

5 days